The Post-Trump Regional Equations In A Glance

Subsequent to the January 6th Biden inauguration ceremony and the Joe Biden’s Democrat administration settling into the White House, the trend of political equations related to Iran in the State Department has changed in appearance, but not in essence. It seems that countering mullahs’ ambitions remains strong in the new administration.

The policy that was pursued in the White House for the past four years was based on “maximum pressure” even at the cost of overthrowing the mullahs’ regime in Iran. Although the Trump administration always avoided confirming it explicitly, many politicians and analysts had assessed that the extensive pressure would result in the fall of the regime in Iran.

With Biden’s Democrats in power, many prognosticated a possible pro Islamist-Left leaning uniting forces in the White House cooperating with the Left leaning Europeans to prevent the fall of the regime.

Democrats and the European left leaning Parties believe that supporting what they call “moderates” in Iran may curb extremism in Iran. They do not oppose the regime of the Islamic Republic in its entirety. This is perhaps the biggest difference between the Donald Trump’s administration and Joe Biden’s.

The experience of the past 41 years of political interrelations between Western countries and the mullah’s regime in Iran has clearly shown that Democrats’ beliefs in regard to the Iranian regime are nothing more than illusions. A regime based on the ideological beliefs of necessity of exporting its revolution to the world, looks like an ugly crooked building that annoys the eyes and would certainly not be restored by a painting a beautiful mural on it nor planting a tree at its entrance.

The Islamic republic is built with such major defects that if it were to be repaired, the whole building would collapse. So, the vision that Trump administration achieved about Iran was much closer to the reality than what some people are trying to make Biden believe about Iran.

The mullahs in Iran know very well that they cannot be reformed, and what is known in this regime as reformism and moderation in the sense as is known to Westerners are just fabricated notions to deceive western countries until the regime would reach the point of the acquisition of nuclear weapons.

The Islamic republic is located in a very important intersection strategically. A region where the West and East joins. Between Moscow and Beijing on one hand and Europe and the United States on the other. The role of Israel in this region cannot be ignored. The emergence of an ideological sectarian nuclear Iran in this region may put everything upside down for the West altogether. The West has more strategic allies in the region than China and Russia so the establishment of an emerging nuclear state in the region that represents “anti-Westernism” jeopardizes the long-term interests of the West.

It seems that the Democrats’ stance and the ‘carrot-and-stick’ policy, given the failed history, would only increase China’s influence in the region. This is maybe something that Republicans, especially those close to Donald Trump understood very well and that is where the strong opposition to the policies of the Democrats stems from in large part.

An emerging nuclear power under the rule of Shiite Islamic extremists who call for the destruction of Israel at every occasion is a serious alarm for the region’s predominantly Sunni Arab states and Israel.

The plan to destroy Israel by the mullahs and IRGC’s representatives cannot be easily overlooked. Presenting and reviewing this plan in the Islamic republic’s Parliament makes the issue of the rise of an Islamic fascist regime more worrisome than ever.

The statements and concerns of the Israeli officials in this regard are not exaggerated. The Arab countries that now have a good relationship with Israel under the Abraham Accord, look less anxious for support and protection from the White House. Perhaps the coalition of these strategic allies of the West, is aware that in the event of a conflict with the Iranian regime, the United States has no choice but to offer its full support in protecting the coalition.

What happened on the late hours of Friday January 29, 2021 in Tehran is proof of this claim. IDF Chief Aviv Kochavi made it clear on January 26^th “… I have instructed the Israel Defense Forces to prepare a number of operational plans, in addition to those already in place. “. He went on: “It will be up to the political leadership, of course, to decide on implementation but these plans need to be on the table.”  possibly referring to similar attacks such as Iraq’s Osirak and Syria’s Deir al-Zour. “This operation and its success made it clear that Israel will not allow those who pose a threat to its existence to acquire nuclear weapons,” said Israeli Intelligence Minister Israel Katz when he claimed responsibility for the attack on Syria’s nuclear facilities.

On Saturday January 30^th, an air strike siren sounded in the west of Tehran for fifteen minutes. At the same time, suddenly important websites such as airport’s, the Iran Atomic Energy Organization and those of mobile phone companies became unavailable. If we accept what analysts say and the evidence presented by military websites, we come to the conclusions that they might be rationally plausible. The verbal clashes last week indeed coincided with heavy attacks in Syria against the Iranian regime’s positions. This could be a two-pronged strategy for the Israeli army. The first is to carry out a real exercise and the second is to give a stern warning to the officials of the Iranian regime.

According to some security and defense reporters in Israel, the flight of Israel’s fifth-generation fighters is not limited to a specific time. Perhaps one of the most obvious signs of their stealth presence was a horrific explosion at Khojir missile base. Therefore, what happened on Saturday night, according to this report by monitoring the regime’s military-missile sites and activities sent a clear message to the mullahs. In an interview we had with military experts in Iran, they said they were receiving short-term signals confirming the presence of an unidentified aircraft over an important missile sites near Mehrabad Airport in Tehran. At the same time severe disruption of the integrated radar network was perturbing the Iranian air defense.

The air raid sirens reportedly rang for at least 15 minutes… @flightradar24 shows the current air traffic around #Tehran, #Iran at the moment. Intersting flight path for the Turkish Airlines flight. pic.twitter.com/oVZjFO0vIm

— Aurora Intel (@AuroraIntel) January 29, 2021

This incident has clearly sent the message to the Iranian regime that an aircraft that crosses the border and flies more than 500km over Iranian skies without being intercepted by the regime’s radars, is capable of doing anything and bomb any places.

The Abraham Act and Israel’s significant assistance to Azerbaijan and its victory in the war with Armenia, allows Israel to eventually use the facilities offered by these countries to access any part of Iran. Contrary to what the mullahs thought would happen once Biden’s administration is controlling the Oval, the Middle East is tumultuous.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Israel Defense Forces said: “In the next war, thousands of missiles will be fired at us. But our reaction will also be widespread.”. Kochavi warned the people of Lebanon and Gaza to leave their homes in the event of a conflict. He made the remarks that “A return to the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, or a “slightly improved” one, would be an operational and strategic mistake for the world. “.  “If Iran’s progress in developing advanced centrifuges and enriching uranium are not stopped, it could eventually be “only weeks” away from a nuclear bomb. ” Kochavi said at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) annual conference. He said “Let the Iranian regime suffocate.”.

Babak Asiaei is an Iranian-born journalist and commentator.