The Biden administration is convinced that it will succeed in concluding a nuclear agreement with Iran (I am skeptical, I don’t think the Mullah’s regime in Iran are interested other than playing for time) but what are the plans of the Biden administration for the period after a conclusion of an agreement? America’s allies in Islamdom worry that the Biden administration will continue to court Mullah’s regime in the hope of reconciling with the ruling mullahs. The reasons behind this fear is Rob Malley who will remain in charge of the Iran file and his agenda is identical to that of Barack Obama, namely aligning America with the Islamists. Furthermore, much of the Biden administration is populated by former Obama staffers like Malley.
The recent interview with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud (MBS) in the Atlantic confirms that regional leaders are keeping the option open of realigning with China should the US succeed in its outreach towards Mullah’s regime in Iran. Of course, this is unrealistic considering the depth of Khomeinist hatred towards the United States and the Khomeinist belief that the American superpower with its hard power and soft power is a Jewish conspiracy aimed at destroying Islam. However, the fear and distrust towards Malley and Biden among the leaders of Islamdom is unmistakable. Israeli leaders cannot understand what the intentions of the US are and no else in the region understands either and hence the palpable fear.
Obama and Malley of course are no lunatics, they are influenced by the prevailing “post-colonial” paradigm in Middle Eastern studies which rationalizes the irrational motivations of Islamists. President Biden has so far shown none of President Obama’s proclivity for alignment with Islamists, yet some believe that Rob Malley is the one running US policy on Iran. The great question of course is whether the US intends to pursue further appeasement of Mullah’s regime past a nuclear agreement with Tehran? This is what worries the region’s leaders.
Mullah’s regime in Iran poses of course a tremendous non-conventional threat against the United States and from a so-called “postcolonial” reading would it therefore make sense to promote détente between Islamist Mullah’s regime in Iran and the United States. However, the only way to even theoretically achieve that (albeit temporarily so) would be at the expense of America’s Middle Eastern allies, chiefly Israel and Saudi Arabia. This would see an Obamaesque recognition of Mullah’s regime in Iran as a great power in Islamdom and rather than contain Iran might there be a US policy of balancing Israel and Mullah’s regime in Iran – the two great powers of Islamdom – against each other Kissinger-style. This could explain the refusal of the Biden administration to provide so-called “incentives” (including security guarantees) in return for normalization with Israel.
This assumes of course that there will be a nuclear agreement – something which Tehran could still yet sabotage – and that Tehran would be willing to enter a détente with the “Great Satan” as the United States is known in Khomeinist theo-ideology. However, the capacity of the inept and misguided Biden administration to harm American interests and endanger its allies should certainly not be underestimated.